The Trade Wars Are Just Beginning

Written By Leeja Miller

Sources:

Transcript:

In the indelible words of Representative Jasmine Crockitt: “somebody slap me and wake me the fuck up” cuz we’re living in a nightmare, people! Last night Trump gloated about his second administration’s victories in a speech that lasted way too long I hear because I didn’t actually watch it because who the fuck cares it’s just a bunch of bloviating and circle jerking at this point, and predictably Democratic lawmakers did little to actually show a solid bold opposition. One singular 77 year old representative had the balls to stand up and yell enough to actually interrupt things and the rest… held up signs. You really got him, guys. We really showed him this time. At this point it’s clear that Democrats are simply unwilling to actually do the bold rulebreaking necessary to put up a decisive, united oppositional front, so I guess we’re on our own, people. In his speech Trump defended his newest tariffs saying the way we’ve been treated by countries is very unfair and the new 25% tariffs he placed on Canada and Mexico, as well as the additional 10% on China, are “about protecting the soul of our country” once again likening his actions to godly intervention. But it turns out that, according to experts, the business community, farmers, workers, every other country, and average Americans, things are, economically speaking, going very bad, and the tariffs will do nothing but make that worse. Today we’re talking about the new tariffs and how Trump’s economic policies are quickly tanking the economy and making life MUCH more expensive for all of us. Let’s get into it.



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Reactions to Trump’s speech last night highlight how polarizing he is and how much even our news media differs on its coverage of him, depending on biases.


This recent article from CBS caught my eye with the headline “Poll on Trump's 2025 joint address to Congress finds large majority of viewers approve” which made me wonder whether it was just Trump supporters who watched and no one else.


Using the Ground News browser extension, it’s helpful to see that this news source has a left leaning bias. I really love this extension because it provides context, and I can see how other sources are framing the story by clicking full coverage.


On the Ground News website you can see that there are 24 sources covering this topic


Among them, the left leaning publication The Independent uses the headline:  “Snap poll shows lukewarm response to Trump’s speech - but blasted Democrats behavior"   while the far right Breitbart frames it as: "Overwhelming Majority of Viewers Approve Trump's Speech." Very different takes, and it's a clear example of how consuming news from only one perspective can limit your understanding of a situation.


This is where Ground News comes in - and why I've been using them for over a year. Today’s partner Ground News is an app and website that offers tools to help you critically analyze the news you read, providing context to understand the full picture. For example, I can see each publication's factuality rating, as well as the overall factuality ratings of publications discussing this story, so I know which is more trustworthy. And I can see who owns which publication, and that the overall ownership skews more towards media conglomerates than independent news outlets.


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In case you somehow missed it, at midnight on Tuesday morning Trump put into effect 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada, plus an additional 10% increase on imports from China, amounting to a total of 20% tariffs on Chinese goods. Other than an exception for Canadian energy, only 10% on that, these tariffs took effect across the board, taking a sledgehammer to our longstanding economic allies and trade partners. Where past tariffs, even during Trump’s first term, were at least limited to specific sectors or materials, and implemented with more of a clear objective or at least SOME kind of strategy in mind, with these new tariffs Trump is no longer playing any lip service to giving two fucks about how any of this will actually affect the American people, the people in countries we’ve seen as allies for decades, or economic stability on a global scale. So, how’d we get here? Trump promised sweeping tariffs on the campaign trail, claiming that it would help curb illegal immigration, the importation of fentanyl, and it would create more American jobs and manufacturing. On day one of his new term, Trump issued an emergency declaration at the borders, saying there’s an invasion, it’s a national emergency, and more resources need to be sent to address the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl. Under this pretext, he was able to issue sweeping tariffs at the stroke of a pen because of the emergency circumstances. Hitler also issued a national emergency in order to begin enacting his policy agenda, which I say separately as just a fun unrelated world history fact. Then in February Trump threatened these 25% tariffs, then took it back, and then threatened them again, and made statements that made it seem like he was open to bargaining. So it was truly unclear up until the literal moment the tariffs went into effect whether or not they would actually happen, which really is great for things like global economic stability. To further destabilize everything, less than 48 hours after putting the tariffs in place, this afternoon Trump said actually except cars. Cars get a one month reprieve. So now it’s just everything EXCEPT cars, at least until April, when we’ll do this all over again.


Why tariffs? It’s about immigration and fentanyl so he says, but, really, it’s not. Not only because if it was these tariffs would not be applied to Canada, whose border only accounts for .2% of fentanyl entering the US. But besides that, what it’s really about is power, it’s about bullying on a global scale just for the sake of it, and it’s about Trump getting his way the only way he knows how. Trump is using these tariffs as a bargaining chip to get countries to do what he wants, which may be working in some limited ways that we’ll talk about but is ruining our relationships with all our trade partners. But Trump seems completely unconcerned about that. I think Trump is used to operating within fraught, contentious business relationships, and he’s very comfortable with people hating him as long as he gets his way. He’s done it in business for the last 50 years, so why wouldn’t he apply it to world trade too.


Another fact that illustrates how much none of this is actually related to immigration or fentanyl: in response to the threat of these tariffs last month, Mexico gave Trump concessions in exchange for holding off on the tariffs. They extradited 29 cartel heads to stand trial in the US, they sent thousands of Mexican national guard troops to Sinaloa to seize vast amounts of fentanyl, and thousands more to the US border, and illegal border crossings there have plummeted, according to New York Times. A delegation from Mexico in Washington was attempting to negotiate through the end of last week. Despite Trump’s promises that he wouldn’t impose tariffs if Mexico produced results, which they say they have, the negotiations fell through and Trump made good on his threats. He shifted demands, moving the goal posts on Monday saying Mexico and Canada had to relocate car manufacturing to the US in order to avoid tariffs. 


And this behavior from Trump continues the trend we talked about on Monday in my episode about the Zelensky meeting, of alienating ourselves from our longest friends, allies, and trading partners, to the detriment of all of us, and to the detriment of the ongoing stability and economic power of the United States. These tariffs will continue to push our allies away, our allies will then forge alliances with new, friendlier countries, and America will close in on itself in an attempt at protectionism in a world where that’s not really an option. And it’s all for nothing, truly. Fentanyl and illegal immigration isn’t happening at the Canadian border. Mexico has made concessions and illegal crossings and fentanyl importation has fallen at the southern border. Trump himself already declared victory over Mexico last month. And these new tariffs simply will not bring back manufacturing to the US. The pandora’s box of globalized trade has already been opened and it cannot be undone–businesses will just go to where the labor is the cheapest and that is not in the US. According to the New York Times, Mexican businesses are considering moving their production to central america, seeking other export partners, and investigating whether they can automate or robotize production lines to reduce costs. They are not seriously making moves to bring factories and manufacturing back to American soil, and even if they were it would take years. The President of Mexico City’s chamber of commerce told the New York Times that it was time for Mexican businesses to look to other regions. The leader of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, promised to “retool for new markets and new customers.”


And as for China, The Chinese Embassy in the US tweeted, quote, “If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.” Hate that! In retaliation for the additional 10% tariffs, China immediately increased tariffs of up to 15% on US farm exports and increased the number of US companies subject to special restrictions. They did not, however, immediately decide to start building new factories in the US. Because that is not how trade works, despite what Trump says. During Trump’s first term, in response to tariffs, China simply looked to Brazil to import soybeans, the crop that accounted for fully half of all agricultural exports from the US to China last year. And manufacturers simply moved factories to other parts of Asia where labor continues to be cheap in order to avoid US tariffs. It turns out, in the end, there are countries besides the US. Weird how that works.


After stock markets tanked and fluctuated dramatically from the new tariffs, contributing to ongoing economic instability, the kind that makes investors squeamish, and businesses began scheduling “shit shit what do we do” board meetings, after ALL THIS CHAOS, last night Trump’s Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick went on Fox Business and said mmmm he might change his mind, he’ll make an announcement tomorrow. Which he did this afternoon in pausing the tariffs for car manufacturers. It is, once again, a clear move by Trump that he is accustomed to making in his business transactions: I do something unnecessarily retaliatory that makes your life fucking hell, and then I show mercy by saying I’ll stop doing the bad thing if you do more for me. This is what’s known as an “abusive relationship.” I’ll keep my foot on your neck and you better thank me when I loosen it up enough to let you breathe. In this type of relationship, the abuser is never satisfied. It never reaches a point where finally he says ah yes you’ve done everything I asked, now I will stop dangling these threats over your head. That will never happen, the goal posts will always keep changing. The only solution in that kind of relationship is to break ties with the abuser. And people, even those who traditionally support Trump, are getting sick of it.


The Dow Jones fell 1300 points in two days, the S&P 500 lost all of its gains since the November election, business leaders issued press releases and interviews condemning the tariffs, despite Trump’s claim that these tariffs will bring car manufacturing back to the US, the major car companies have been literally begging Trump not to go through with these tariffs, and Republicans joined in backdoor meetings to plead with the administration to not go through with the tariffs. Businesses have no way of planning because they have no idea if or when tariffs will actually go into effect after 6 weeks of back and forth promises regarding all kinds of tariffs from Trump. And consumers have to handle the chaos and uncertainty as well. But to Trump this discomfort is part of it, and it’s a worthy sacrifice to make. Elon Musk said similarly regarding all his government cuts. Like THEY’RE not going to feel the discomfort, of course, but for the good of the country we have to just be a little uncomfortable, as though this is world war 2 and we’re getting sugar rations and growing victory gardens. At his state of the union that wasn’t a state of the union last night, Trump acknowledged that the tariffs could “cause some pain” and asked farmers and consumers to “bear with” him. Even though none of us are bearing anything WITH Trump. He couldn’t give two shits if Target raises avocado prices tomorrow, there’s no way he has any concept of the price of an avocado, it’s one avocado what could it be, ten dollars? Well, maybe soon it could be. According to the Washington Post, avocado prices could go up 50 cents each almost immediately, depending on where in the country you live. Gas could go up 20 to 40 cents and new SUVs could cost an extra $9,000 if those tariffs go back in place for car makers next month. And most people aren’t buying new cars, and 20 cents here and 50 cents there seems like literal chump change but even a 5% increase on prices for everything means literally hundreds or thousands more in grocery and energy bills for the average American family. The Washington Post quoted a mother of 2 in the Washington DC area, whose $250 weekly grocery bill is double what it was a few years ago, saying “We’ve stopped eating fresh fruits and vegetables because the prices are so extreme, and getting worse. It’s getting even harder to stick to our budget.” Families are already feeling the squeeze, some have already been forgoing fresh produce, you know the main healthiest thing for humans to consume in abundance, the thing with the nutrients necessary to sustain life, because of prices.


According to the Washington Post, grocery prices are up 28 percent since 2020 and jumped half a percent in just the month between December and January. After a bump in economic optimism after the election, polls are showing Americans are feeling worse about their economic prospects, especially regarding inflation, than they were a few months ago. Companies are hiring fewer people, manufacturing is seeing a dip in orders, home purchases are falling through. People are losing patience with a failing economy more than they were in 2018 when Trump first enacted tariffs against Chinese goods. There was no dramatic fallout after those tariffs in Trump’s first term, but experts are saying these newest tariffs will cause more noticeable shifts, and consumers are in a very different mental and emotional place now than they were last time he did this in 2018, before the pandemic. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that these new tariffs are expected to cost the average US household at least $1200 per year, while Yale’s budget lab puts estimates at 1600 to 2000 dollars more per year for the average household.


As a result of these tariffs, the price of all Mexican goods in the US will go up, including my personal favorite Mexican import to consume, tequila, which I have been leaning on more than usual since the inauguration, frankly. And it’s not just the goods themselves, the industry that transports those goods wouldn’t last a week if trade is frozen, according to the New York Times. The US buys more than 3/4s of ALL of Mexico’s exports, so the Mexican economy will take a major hit from these tariffs. It hurts US consumers and it hurts Mexican businesses, which will hurt Mexicans who rely on those businesses for jobs. We literally all lose.


And these tariffs come as just an additional feature of Trump’s economy that will hurt consumers and US businesses, and many fear for the farmers who will be disproportionately impacted by all of it. According to the Atlantic, nearly half of the agricultural workforce in the United States is composed of undocumented immigrants, so increasing production to replace Mexican and Canadian agricultural imports would not only take years to implement but would be literally impossible because there aren’t enough people doing agricultural work, not to mention the fact that avocados don’t grow well in the US. New avocado trees can take a decade before they start to produce fruit, I know because I was like what if I just grew my own tree in my house. It is, unfortunately, not that easy it turns out. This is on top of the new tariffs raising prices on foreign fertilizer and farming equipment that US farmers heavily rely on.


Housing will also be impacted. Our housing supply is already short because there isn’t enough labor, but with Trump’s deportation plans there will be even less. Canadian lumber exporters have already been raising lumber prices in anticipation of these tariffs, meaning the studs of every new house built with Canadian lumber will bear the effects of that 25% tariff, not to mention all the other things that we use to build houses that are not manufactured here. So even if you can find people to build your house, which will be hard, the cost of the materials will be dramatically higher.


Mexican president Sheinbaum has a call scheduled with Trump tomorrow, Thursday, and she has vowed that if the tariffs remained in place after that call she would institute retaliatory measures and tariffs that will be announced on Sunday. Justin Trudeau had a phone call with Trump midday today that yielded no results so I have low expectations for Trump’s call with Mexico tomorrow.


And even with the announcement this afternoon that there is a softening of the original blanket 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for auto makers, the chaos is truly just beginning. Because all the other goods that still have those tariffs will cause chaos for businesses, transportation, and US consumers. And more tariffs have been planned, including on April 2nd, when Trump has promised to announce “reciprocal” tariffs to match all tariffs, taxes, and subsidies on US goods in all other countries, which would kick off likely even more retaliatory tariffs on US businesses and exports, fueling more chaos and stoking the embers of a growing trade war that ends mostly in us paying more and general economic instability. Yale’s budget lab estimates that those April 2nd tariffs could cost average Americans an additional $3400 per year.


As for Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called our tariffs “dumb” and announced retaliatory tariffs on over $100 billion dollars of American goods to be implemented over the next 21 days. The Canadian finance minister indicated that Canada is not interested in meeting in the middle or reduced tariffs, and will accept nothing less than having the 25% tariff fully removed on all goods. Trudeau has vowed that Canadians will stop consuming American products, and the leader of Canada’s post populous province Ontario said they may end a contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink, hope so!, and will shut off power to the US with a smile on his face, adding to the growing chorus of our historic allies deciding instead of putting up with abuse, manipulation, and game playing, they would rather walk away from the toxic relationship and simply leave the US out of global affairs altogether. Whether they’ll stick to their guns remains to be seen. A lot remains to be seen, unfortunately. I didn’t even want to make a tariff video until at least these new ones went into effect because it’s truly impossible to predict and this video is going to be outdated in like 12 hours, but I think it’s important and people are really concerned about it, so I wanted to lay out what’s been happening so that I can add to this and provide updates in the future as things continue to unravel. For now, it seems, the chaos is only just beginning.


And now we’ve reached the part of the episode where I try to answer the question: what the fuck do we do? Because I’m not here just to fearmonger but instead to provide information and solutions. I’m so fucking sick of telling you to call your senators, and I have less and less faith that they are willing to do much of anything meaningful. So what I personally am doing to make myself feel like I have agency over my life in a chaotic world is turning to learning skills that make me more self sufficient. Today, let’s talk urban gardening. When I was in law school I grew kale in a bucket on my fire escape. Find yourself a receptacle: a storage container you’re not using, an old ice cream pail, the plastic container your greens come in, a bucket you found in some alleyway I don’t care just make sure you wash that thing. Get yourself some dirt, preferably weed free. Costco sells big cheap bags of it in the springtime. A $5 packet of kale seeds will last you forever, I personally love Adaptive Seeds. Cut the bottom off an old onion or a head of lettuce, grab some garlic cloves, find an old potato with a few good eyes, those are the brown spots, you probably already have one or two sprouting in your kitchen somewhere. Plant it all. The potatoes should be planted eye side up with a good sized mound of dirt on top. Water it well. Put it in a south or west facing window. See what grows. Go from there. Should our government be providing us enough to live off so we don’t feel left out in the wilderness to fend for ourselves? Yes. Is it easy or fair? No. But I personally find great satisfaction in learning how to do things that remove me from complete dependence on our fraught global economic system, even if it's just kale salads. You should not have to give up eating fresh produce because of a global trade war none of us have any control over.


Education is also power. If you’d like to support my work, I just launched the Why, America? Co-Learning Lab, a learning community having discussions and making connections, along with a monthly syllabus curated by me. All year we’ll be covering topics under the umbrella theme of “Eat the Rich: Building Solidarity in the New Gilded Age.” March’s topic is how billionaires bought the government. This is all hosted over on Patreon, which is linked down below. If you’re interested, please join us. Patreon dot com slash leeja miller.


Thank you to my multi-platinum patrons Thomas Orf, Sarah Shelby, Art, David, R_H, Joshua Cole, Thomas Johnson, and Tay. Your generosity makes this channel what it is, so thank you! 


And if you liked this episode, you’ll like the one from Monday about Trump’s disastrous meeting with Zelensky.


Leeja Miller
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